Three Things to Be Excited About in 2024
Being brief thoughts on three areas of technology in which I have no expertise but much enthusiasm.
Over the office parties, brunches, celebratory lunches, and random coffees I had around the turn of the new year I heard so many people say some version of “2023 was bad, but 2024 is going to be worse”. Generally, this is said in a kind of world weary jest, but as we all know, behind these jokes is always a kernel of people’s true thoughts.
Here’s the thing, though. While so many around me seem to be dreading the year to come, I’m pretty stoked. Yes, wars, horrible, hopefully not expanding, wars, and very worrying elections, but also so much to be positive about, so much that is likely to make the world in 2024 weirder and more exciting.
In my professional life in criminal justice, there’s much to celebrate, with New York City remaining the safest big city in America while continuing to have extremely low rates of pretrial detention, but on this here substack, where I get to engage in my private interests, I want to talk about three other things I’m excited about in 2024.
AI
It is quite possible that we won’t see any major breakthroughs in LLMs in 2024. Could be we get next level GPT5 type models, could be we don’t. Either way 2024 is going to be the year that LLMs start to deeply penetrate the workplace and our private lives. Technology takes a while to work its way into the economy, and while many business are experimenting with LLMs, I think we’ll see that trend truly explode in the coming year. They will take some jobs, yes, but they will create others, and open up new insights, new means of creativity, and so much more.
I mean, my god, just this week we unlocked what may turn out to be an enormous library of previously unreadable ancient texts. What else will the ML revolution bring us? I’m excited to find out.
Breakthroughs in pharmacology
If the only thing we had going for us in pharmacology was mRNA vaccines, that would be enough. The Covid vaccines are a scientific marvel and have saved millions of lives, but they’re just the start of the revolution in vaccine development. There’s so much more to come there, with the problems likely shifting from vaccine development to vaccine rollout and acceptance. That’s a hard problem, but I’ll take it if it's coupled with revolutionary medicine.
Add to the vaccine breakthrough the weight loss drugs that have hit the market this year and are already helping millions of people get their health back and also, apparently, have the side benefit of helping those battling addiction?
It’s an abundance of riches.
Yes we have a crisis in medical scholarship and we’re dealing with unprecedented levels of distrust in science, but in the real nuts and bolts world of drug development remarkable things are happening that will allow us all to live longer and happier lives.
May you see your children’s children’s children.
Climate Adaptation Technology
Electric cars, solar, wind, and remarkable advancements in nuclear. Electrification of the grid, smart homes, and hundreds and hundreds of other innovative ideas being piloted. We’re well on our way to mitigating the damage we have wrought on the work.
The climate adaptation revolution is happening all around us, but because, like climate change, it happens in fits and starts and is beginning at a slow boil, it can be easy to miss. In 2024 the breadth and speed of these adaptations will increase and those of us in the US will start to see it more and more in our daily lives.
No one is coming for your gas stove, but the smart money is already moving on.
Yes, the horrible effects of climate change are already baked in. We’re headed for a world where temperatures increase about 1.5 degree Celsius. That’s a fact we have to live with. And one that means many people, especially in the global south, are going to see their lives upended. But the technology to deal with it is either already here, or on its way, and for that I’m excited.
Looking at this list, it’s obvious what they share in common – they’re technical, and the world is not a technical puzzle we get to solve, but its still a remarkably exciting time to be alive.